A reasonable warmer winter index (IWWI) in the framework of the three equiprobability categories (i.e. warmer, normal and colder categories) is proposed based on the winter temperature data observed at 565 stations in China during 1956-2005, where IWWI is defined as the ratio of the station number of warmer category over the total number of stations. The results suggest that the trend of IWWI was consistent with that of the winter temperature on decadal time scale, and their rates of change were 10%/10 a and 0.4 ℃/10 a, respectively. It is found that only 13 warmer winter events in total were detected by IWWI over the past 50 years, and 85% of them occurred after 1986. 相似文献
In this study, four groups of different types of bridge foundation model are tested to research the horizontal bearing behavior of caisson-pile composite foundation in lab based on the Qiongzhou Strait bridge project. The Q-s curve and horizontal ultimate bearing capacity of these four groups of foundations in sandy soil layer are obtained. Pile bending moment and shear force of pile shaft are analyzed in detail. At the same time, the load sharing ratio of caisson and piles is discussed. The results show that the horizontal ultimate bearing capacities of a single caisson foundation are increased by 1.2 times, 1.6 times and 2 times respectively with adding skirts, steel pipe pile, or steel pipe pile and the skirt. The maximum bending moment point is in the middle of the pile shaft, i.e. at about 0.5 m under the mud surface. The horizontal load is borne mainly by the upper caisson foundation and soil layers above the middle upper part of pile. The maximum shear force is found at the joint of pile top of steel pipe and caisson pile, where the reinforcement measures should be taken in practical engineering. The research achievements could provide a better reference for design or construction of caisson-pile composite foundation. 相似文献
It is known that a lot of uncertainties are involved in geotechnical design of energy piles. In this paper, a Bayesian updating framework is presented to characterize those uncertainties. The load-transfer model is developed to predict the thermomechanical response of energy piles. Considering the cross-case variability of the uncertainty in the axial strains of pile, the global model bias is firstly calibrated by establishing a comprehensive database consisting of 12 energy pile cases. Furthermore, the uncertainty in input parameters is considered in the Bayesian updating of model bias in a specific case. The variability of the uncertain parameters is effectively reduced after updating. The coefficient of variation of prediction is decreased from 0.34 to 0.13. The present framework can well quantify uncertain factors and improve the accuracy and reliability of the prediction model.